How Tesco's Consumer Trends Shape Procurement

The global landscape is currently navigating a period of profound uncertainty, characterised by rising prices and major disruptions to food supply chains.

For procurement professionals and retailers alike, the manner in which consumers interact with their purchases has shifted significantly. Brands must now develop a deep understanding of these changes not only to meet demand but to remain competitive in a turbulent market.

In an effort to address these shifts, Tesco has released its third annual trends report. Titled 'We Know the Nation 2026', the report details five key trends that are set to shape UK shopping habits and market movements as we approach 2026.

Meeting consumers half-way

British multinational retailer Tesco has utilised its media arm to explore where consumer habits are heading and how brands can stay ahead of the curve. The report delves into external factors contributing to changing consumer trends, including the ongoing integration of AI, an unstable economic environment and the pervasive impact of social media.

As the geopolitical and economic landscape feels increasingly unstable, the consumer desire for trust has grown. The report demonstrates that Tesco is listening to its customers and adapting its procurement and retail strategies to support them. By understanding the factors shaping consumer habits, Tesco is positioning its brand as a reliable source in uncertain times.

"As a nation, we are living through a period of economic and social uncertainty," says Tash Whitmey, Managing Director at Tesco Media and Insight Platform.

"In this landscape, a consistent and reassuring proposition isn’t just good practice. It’s how brands protect customer confidence, build repeat custom and reinforce positive habits over time."

Tash highlights the necessity for brands to be proactive rather than reactive.

"As people become more deliberate about what they choose and where they spend, brands have to work harder to earn attention and reward it. That means creating conditions for discovery and engagement while reliably delivering on core, daily needs."

The report splits its five trends into two distinct sections: Culture and Cognition. Tesco defines 'Culture' by how shoppers are altering their habits to respond to changing socioeconomic realities, while 'Cognition' explores how shoppers are feeling and choosing in this evolving world.

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Consumer culture

The first major trend identified is 'Community Craving'. As consumers feel overwhelmed by the economic fallout of the cost-of-living crisis, political unrest and the rise of AI making it difficult to discern what is trustworthy, more people are finding comfort in their local community.

Data supports this shift toward heritage and connection. Around the 80th anniversary of VE Day, there was an 8.8% rise in sales of scones, jam and clotted cream.

Meanwhile, digital communities are driving physical procurement trends; Tesco saw an 80% increase between 2024 and 2025 for 'Dubai chocolate' following social media trends. When retailers bridge the gap between online spaces and real-life participation, they create a trusting dynamic with the consumer.

The second trend is 'Intentional Indulgence'. Despite economic pressures, consumers are making informed decisions about their treats.

Healthier snacks are seeing an increase, with sales of 'wholesome snack bars' rising by 9% in the past year. Furthermore, volume sales growth of low and no-alcohol beers and ciders outperformed equivalents by 11% last year.

Changing cognition

Under the banner of Cognition, the report identifies 'Moving Mindsets'. Last year, research found that 71% of consumers enjoy discovering new brands while shopping.

Customers generally fall into a 'functional' mindset – task-focussed and in a rush – or an 'emotive' mindset, where they are open to new ideas.

This leads to 'Discovery Refined'. Although online shopping often encourages habitual patterns, smart retailer strategy compels consumers to discover new products.

For example, Birra Moretti's partnership with Tesco Real Food placed the beer alongside Italian recipes, resulting in a 28% increase in shoppers associating the beer with Italian food.

Finally, 'Loyalty' remains paramount. By using Clubcard, Tesco has developed customer loyalty through personalised promotional incentives. Customers receiving personalised experiences are 1.8x more likely to pay a premium.

By staying relevant and paying attention to national culture, brands can create trust, ensuring the customer feels confident in their purchasing decisions.