The US, Ukraine & EV Minerals: What It Means for Procurement

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has already reshaped global energy markets, but now, Ukraine’s vast reserves of critical minerals are drawing attention from procurement and geopolitical strategists alike.

As demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and green technologies surges, securing reliable access to these essential raw materials has become a priority for global supply chains. The United States is exploring a potential deal with Ukraine to access these resources, raising both opportunities and concerns.

Ukraine’s role in the global critical minerals supply chain

Ukraine possesses a wealth of minerals crucial to modern industries, particularly those driving the transition to clean energy. The country holds one of Europe’s largest confirmed lithium reserves — estimated at 500,000 tonnes — essential for EV batteries. It also contains approximately 20% of the world’s known graphite deposits, a key material for battery anodes.

Beyond lithium and graphite, Ukraine is a leading global source of manganese, crucial for steel production and battery manufacturing. It also has the largest titanium reserves in Europe, used in aerospace, defence and industrial applications.

Additionally, the country has deposits of rare earth elements, including neodymium and yttrium, vital for high-performance magnets used in EV motors, wind turbines and consumer electronics.

For procurement professionals, Ukraine’s resource wealth presents both an opportunity and a challenge. On one hand, securing access to these materials could reduce reliance on existing dominant suppliers, particularly China. On the other, the geopolitical instability in the region adds significant supply chain risk, making long-term agreements a complex undertaking.

US-Ukraine negotiations: Procurement opportunity or political gamble?

The United States has entered discussions with Ukraine over securing access to these critical minerals, but the terms of the agreement remain contentious. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed concerns about the deal’s structure.

"I didn't let the ministers sign a relevant agreement because, in my view, it is not ready to protect us, our interest," he stated, indicating his reluctance to approve a deal that does not sufficiently safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty.

In a firmer stance, he added, "I can't sell Ukraine," in response to proposals that could give the US substantial control over Ukraine’s mineral resources.

However, some Ukrainian officials view the agreement differently. Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna has suggested that formalising the deal would "showcase our commitment for decades to come," underscoring the potential long-term economic and strategic advantages.

From a procurement perspective, the agreement represents a significant shift in global mineral sourcing. If finalised, it could create new supply chain pathways for US and Western manufacturers, reducing dependence on China for key EV components.

However, without clear terms on investment, resource management and supply commitments, the deal could be seen as an economic overreach rather than a mutually beneficial partnership.

Potential benefits and risks for global supply chains

If the US secures rights to Ukraine’s minerals, it could yield multiple advantages. Firstly, it would diversify the global supply chain, decreasing reliance on China’s near-monopoly over critical minerals. For the US, this would strengthen domestic EV and battery production, supporting long-term procurement strategies for the automotive and technology sectors.

Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson highlighted the broader geopolitical implications, calling the agreement "the great prize" and stating it would ensure "a commitment from the US under Donald Trump to a free, sovereign and secure Ukraine."

For Ukraine, the potential benefits extend beyond mineral sales.

White House National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, stated that the agreement would "expand economic opportunities and strengthen the ties between the US and Ukraine for the future." Increased foreign investment in the country’s mining sector could lead to job creation, infrastructure development and stronger post-war economic recovery.

Iryna Suprun, CEO of the Geological Group, emphasised this point: "We will acquire technologies that our mining sector desperately needs. We will gain capital, leading to more jobs, tax revenue and income from the exploitation of mineral deposits."

However, securing these advantages is not without risks. The procurement of minerals from conflict-affected regions carries ethical considerations and potential supply disruptions. If the agreement is not structured with clear investment commitments, environmental protections and fair revenue-sharing, Ukraine may find itself in a vulnerable position, trading short-term financial relief for long-term dependency.

Moreover, the deal could provoke tensions with China, which currently dominates global critical mineral processing. If Ukraine aligns more closely with US procurement interests, China may respond by restricting access to its own mineral resources, disrupting international markets and complicating global supply chain planning.

Procurement’s role in navigating uncertain supply chains

The potential US-Ukraine minerals deal highlights the growing role of procurement in shaping global economic and political landscapes. Supply chain professionals must weigh geopolitical risks, ethical considerations and long-term sustainability when evaluating sourcing strategies for critical minerals.

For companies reliant on EV components, diversifying mineral procurement is essential to avoid market volatility. However, balancing supply security with responsible sourcing practices will be key.

If Ukraine’s resources become a major part of Western supply chains, procurement leaders will need to establish resilient partnerships, invest in transparent sourcing and navigate potential regulatory challenges.

As the situation unfolds, procurement will remain at the centre of this high-stakes negotiation, influencing not just business strategies but global economic and security policies.

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