Key Insights: GEP Global Volatility Index September 2025

The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index, a leading economic indicator based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses, saw little change in September 2025, reaching -0.38 vs -0.39 in August.

Used to track demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, backlogs and more, the index shows supply chains across the world are still operating below full capacity.

Chinese manufacturing surges

GEP discovers a strong rise in purchasing activity at Chinese factories, pushing global manufacturing procurement activity up at the fastest rate seen since mid-2022.

The expansion is pushing Asian supply chains to near-full utilisation.

In contrast, North American supply chains lost momentum. Amid tariff-related delays and growing concerns over economic conditions, leading companies are holding back on purchasing and reducing inventory buffers.

On the other side of the Atlantic, supply chains remain underutilised, with manufacturers in Germany, France and Italy all reducing purchasing and stockpiles. Supply chain activity in Europe fell to its weakest level since March – extending protracted industrial downturn.

"This is the new normal for global companies – higher prices, tariff pressure and slower growth are here to stay," says John Piatek, Vice President, Consulting at GEP.

"For supply chain leaders who've been waiting to see how things settle: this is as stable as it's going to get – it's time to start executing their revised strategies."

Key regional findings

Asia: Factory activity in China picked up in September, with a notable boost in demand driving the strongest rise in input purchasing across Asia for ten months.

North America: Manufacturers displayed a reticence to stockpile further in September after August's bumper rise due to concerns over economic outlook, although delivery delays and tariff-related disruptions were reportedly hindrances.

Europe: Factory purchasing lost momentum in September, with Germany, France and Italy all reporting softer procurement trends, driving the region's respective index to a six-month low.

UK: Although the index rose to -0.57 from -0.90, it still reflects significant manufacturing weakness across the country.

September 2025 findings

Demand: September saw a revival in factory purchasing, which made its strongest gains since June 2022. Asia was central to this uplift, particularly China, as the globe's second-largest economy ramped up buying to facilitate sharper growth in production and sales. Input demand trends were far more constrained in North America and Europe.

Inventories: The frequency at which manufacturers across the globe stockpiled due to price or supply fears continued to decrease in September, indicating factory procurement leaders are becoming less concerned about purchase cost inflation or item availability in the near term.

Material Shortages: The global supply shortages tracker decreased in September, indicating robust item availability. Factories will have little, if any, challenges in sourcing vendors for commodities, components and other intermediate products.

Labour Shortages: Staffing capacity was not a constraint for global manufacturers during September. Reports of backlogs rising due to labour shortages fell further below the long-term average and were the lowest in six months.

Transportation: Global transportation costs were in line with historically normal levels during September.

How the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index Works

The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is a collaborative effort between S&P Global and GEP.

It draws from S&P Global's PMI surveys, which are distributed to 27,000 companies worldwide, a weighted aggregation of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators provided by S&P Global.

A positive value in the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index indicates strained supply chain capacity, leading to increased volatility. The higher the value, the greater the strain on capacity.

Conversely, a negative value suggests underutilised supply chain capacity, resulting in reduced volatility. The lower the value, the greater the degree of capacity underutilisation.

A value above 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being stretched and supply chain volatility is increasing. The further above 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being stretched.

A value below 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being underutilised, reducing supply chain volatility. The further below 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being underutilised.