Procurement's Role in Reaching 1.5°C Climate Target

Climate Analytics, a non-profit climate science organisation, has released new findings that contradict assessments from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and various climate models.

While other reports declare the 1.5°C global warming limit as unattainable, the study argues it remains possible if governments commit to rapid emissions cuts and carbon removal technologies.

The report is published as leaders gather for COP30 in Belém, Brazil. With only half of the 197 signatories to the Paris Agreement submitting updated national climate plans, doubts grow around global willingness to deliver on climate promises. Climate Analytics states that global temperatures could peak at 1.7°C before 2050, then fall back to 1.5°C by 2100 – but only if fossil fuel use is aggressively phased out and carbon removal technology sees widespread deployment.

This analysis stands apart from the UNEP's latest Emissions Gap Report, which projects that the 1.5°C target will be exceeded within the decade unless there is an immediate course correction.

Gaps between climate targets and credible action

The UNEP’s report reviews the latest set of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which detail each country's climate commitments under the Paris Agreement. Based on current pledges, global emissions would decline just 10% by 2035 – a trajectory that puts the 1.5°C target out of reach.

UNEP’s modelling suggests global warming will likely reach between 2.3°C and 2.5°C by the end of the century, and could even climb as high as 3.3°C. This is echoed by data models from The Economist, which predict the remaining carbon budget of 80-130bn tonnes could be exhausted before 2030, closing off any theoretical pathway to the 1.5°C threshold.

Climate Analytics disputes this analysis, stating that to avoid these outcomes, emissions must fall 20% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. Through the 2030s, emissions must then decline by 11% annually. A further 30% reduction in methane emissions by 2035 is also needed.

This alternative scenario relies heavily on broad adoption of renewable energy, strategic decarbonisation and development of carbon capture. The procurement implications are clear: supply chains will need to adapt quickly to support the scaling of clean technologies, particularly in energy-intensive sectors.

Pressure on financial services

The diverging predictions between Climate Analytics and the UNEP are not just academic – they carry real weight for financial institutions, especially insurers.

Marcos Alvarez, Managing Director of Global Financial Institution Ratings at Morningstar DBRS, highlights that the UNEP’s forecast of 2.3°C to 2.5°C temperature rise means higher risks for the insurance sector.

"Big flag for the insurance world: the United Nations Environment Programme's latest report says the planet is now on track for a 2.3-2.5°C temperature rise this century – well past the 1.5°C goal," says Marcos.

"For insurers, this isn't just a climate headline – it's a direct signal that the 'rare' events are becoming more routine. Claims from extreme weather will hit more often, premiums may have to rise and capital cushions could get squeezed."

Insurers already face mounting climate-related losses as average global temperatures have exceeded 1.5°C over the past two years. This trend suggests procurement teams across the finance and insurance sectors will need to factor extreme weather exposure into sourcing strategies, infrastructure investments and risk management frameworks.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres adds urgency to the picture: "The 1.5°C limit of global warming is a red line for humanity. It must be kept within reach. Yet, the hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure we remain below 1.5 degrees.

"Science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5 limit is inevitable. We need a paradigm shift to limit this overshoot's magnitude and duration and quickly drive it down."

If overshoot persists, it risks triggering climate tipping points – irreversible changes to Earth systems. These include the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the Amazon rainforest switching from a carbon sink (absorbing carbon) to a carbon source (releasing carbon).

Bill Hare, Chief Executive of Climate Analytics, calls overshoot "a woeful political failure" that raises both damage and risk levels.

The margin between a 1.5°C and 2°C world, according to Climate Analytics, includes an additional 10cm of sea level rise, putting 10.4m more people at risk of coastal flooding by 2100.

Renewables potential

Despite the warnings, Climate Analytics offers a pathway forward, rooted in the accelerated deployment of renewable energy and battery storage.

Neil Grant, Senior Expert at Climate Analytics, points to the past five years of clean energy growth as a reason for optimism, explaining that renewables and batteries have shattered records globally.

To close the gap, the report calls for faster adoption of climate technology, electrification of key sectors like heating, transport and heavy industry, and stronger national climate plans from all major economies.

However, progress across G20 countries is uneven. Just seven are on track to meet their net zero targets by 2050. China’s emissions may peak this year, earlier than expected, driven by rapid expansion of renewables. But countries such as India and Indonesia still lack sufficient policy frameworks to control emissions.

Meanwhile, policy reversals in the US have direct climate consequences. The abandonment of its net-zero target adds 0.1°C to global warming projections, with withdrawal from its Paris Agreement pledges adding another 0.1°C.

These policy swings show the fragility of international climate efforts and raise the stakes for procurement leaders involved in climate-aligned supply chains. Meeting the 1.5°C limit depends not just on ambition, but on whether procurement and supply functions can deliver the materials, technologies and services needed to decarbonise at speed.