US Food Supply Faces Climate Change Disruption Risk

A recent study by the Council on Strategic Risks' Center for Climate Security identifies food insecurity as a primary threat to national security.

This risk is driven by several factors, most notably the El Niño climate pattern, also known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

The US was ranked fourth on the list by climate experts. An El Niño is a weather pattern which is caused by warmer sea temperatures, especially in the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean. 

Areas affected by climate

24% of respondents' top three risks included "food security or agricultural livelihood disruption," amongst 12 options.

"Energy insecurity, grid failures, and related disruptions," was next on the list, according to 20% of respondents' top three risks. 

One respondent says: “These risks are particularly dangerous in their combination. A government dealing with an energy crisis has fewer resources to manage food shortages, while people already struggling to afford food are less able to cope with power outages or infrastructure failures.

"When these crises happen at the same time, they can overwhelm even strong countries, while the impact on fragile states can be highly destabilising.”

Other areas which are affected include the Middle East, Southeast Asia, West Africa and East Asia. 

How does El Niño affect the food supply

Forecasters anticipate that this upcoming El Niño will be among the most intense shifts ever documented, earning it the designation of a "Super El Niño." Such patterns interfere with both the weather and food supply by altering global climate conditions, which can lead to droughts and significant crop failure.

Despite these observations, a comprehensive understanding of the total impact an El Niño has on the food supply remains limited.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says El Niño is known as the most "influential climate driver on Earth."

As a precaution, respondents say the US, along with other listed areas should:

• Build coordinated emergency reserves and contingency agreements across energy, food and fertilizer supply chains, especially for import-dependent countries. 
• Prepare stockpiles of emergency food assistance and restore fertilizer supply. 
• Protect supply chains and begin localizing resources. Pursue cooperative food trade and avoid export bans. 
• Invest in climate-resilient agriculture and prediction/early-warning systems: Invest in the adoption of climate-resilient agricultural practices and agricultural R&D (Research and Development). 
• Keep people farming through improved insurance and hedging measures. 
• Improve sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction and early warning systems, using past El Niño patterns to plan for worst-case scenarios.

Adjacent corporate actions

A number of organisations are currently taking significant steps to enhance climate-related strategies within food manufacturing.

In 2025, Procurement Magazine interviewed Sonya Gafsi Oblisk, Chief Merchandising and Marketing Officer at Whole Foods Market. 

During the discussion, she detailed the grocery chain's commitment to sustainable sourcing, utilising climate-smart farming as a key strategy for addressing climate concerns.

“Climate-smart farming includes agricultural practices that help reduce carbon emissions, enhance soil health and improve biodiversity while ensuring long-term food production,” she says 

“Regenerative farming, organic practices, crop rotation, reduced tillage, cover crops and managed grazing are essential methods that help heal and improve our environment. 

“We’re proud to be protecting the integrity of regenerative agriculture claims by making sure that our shoppers know when they see regenerative on a label in our store that we’ve once again done the homework for them — and that this label can be trusted.”